Margveti 2006 vs FC Iberia 1999 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Margveti 2006 and 2.00 for FC Iberia 1999 II, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FC Iberia 1999 II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Iberia 1999 II win

69.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.65 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Margveti 2006 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Iberia 1999 II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 11% / 20% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Margveti 2006 and 2.00 for FC Iberia 1999 II, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Margveti 2006 win11%

Draw20%

FC Iberia 1999 II win69%

Double chance 1X

31%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–114.1%
0–214.1%
0–39.4%
1–19.2%
1–29.2%

Recent form

Margveti 2006

2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Guria · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 0-2 (L)

FC Iberia 1999 II

2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varketili · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	22	16	3	3	52	51
2	Varketili	22	14	7	1	40	49
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	22	11	8	3	18	41
4	Merani Tbilisi	22	11	6	5	10	39
5	Gonio	22	11	5	6	10	38
6	WIT Georgia	22	10	5	7	10	35
7	Irao	22	10	4	8	11	34
8	Didube 2014	22	9	7	6	6	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	22	9	5	8	4	32
10	Margveti 2006	22	9	3	10	-5	30
11	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	22	7	7	8	-1	28
12	Kolkheti Khobi	22	6	3	13	-17	21
13	Gardabani	22	4	4	14	-35	16
14	Iveria Khashuri	22	1	10	11	-24	13
15	Betlemi	22	3	4	15	-41	13
16	Iberia 2010	22	2	5	15	-38	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Iberia 1999 II win, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.