Margveti 2006 vs Guria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Margveti 2006 and 1.75 for Guria, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Guria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guria win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Margveti 2006 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 23% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Margveti 2006 and 1.75 for Guria, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Margveti 2006 win23%

Draw24%

Guria win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.2%
0–110.6%
1–29.8%
0–29.3%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Margveti 2006

2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Guria · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 0-2 (L)

Guria

2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	25	17	5	3	56	56
2	Varketili	25	16	8	1	44	56
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	12	10	3	22	46
4	Gonio	25	13	5	7	10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	12	7	6	7	43
6	WIT Georgia	25	11	5	9	9	38
7	Irao	25	10	6	9	10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	10	6	9	3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	9	8	8	3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	9	7	9	3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	10	4	11	-8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	7	5	13	-15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	3	11	11	-14	20
14	Gardabani	25	4	4	17	-42	16
15	Betlemi	25	4	4	17	-51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	3	5	17	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guria win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.