· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Maria da Fonte vs Celoricense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Maria da Fonte and 1.07 for Celoricense, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Celoricense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maria da Fonte home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celoricense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celoricense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Maria da Fonte and 1.07 for Celoricense, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–27.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 57.8% vs market 49.3%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 61.9% | 63.9% | 1.56 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 33.4% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.8% | 70.1% | 1.43 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.2% | 29.9% | 3.34 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 36.4% | 36.1% | 2.77 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.3% | 66.0% | 1.52 | -2.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Maria da Fonte
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga B · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Nogueirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celoricense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vinhais · 1-0 (W)
Celoricense
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bragança · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pevidem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maria da Fonte · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Maria da Fonte 0-1 Celoricense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Tirsense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Braga B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Vila Meã | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brito | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.