· Analysis updated 19:30 UTC
Maria da Fonte vs Uniao Nogueirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Maria da Fonte and 1.15 for Uniao Nogueirense, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Maria da Fonte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maria da Fonte home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maria da Fonte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Maria da Fonte and 1.15 for Uniao Nogueirense, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–111.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Maria da Fonte
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maia Lidador · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga B · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brito · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Nogueirense · 1-0 (W)
Uniao Nogueirense
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maria da Fonte · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Águias do Moradal · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · Maria da Fonte 1-0 Uniao Nogueirense (Taça de Portugal)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.