Ljudski vrt · Referee D. Sabanagic · Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Maribor vs Brinje-Grosuplje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Maribor and 0.91 for Brinje-Grosuplje, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Maribor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maribor win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maribor home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brinje-Grosuplje away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maribor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Maribor and 0.91 for Brinje-Grosuplje, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–08.4%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Maribor
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomlje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Mura · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-1 (W)
Brinje-Grosuplje
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomlje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Nafta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maribor win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.