Wiklof Holding Arena · Referee Joona Kontinen, Finland · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.45 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives AC Oulu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AC Oulu win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mariehamn home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Oulu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Mariehamn and 1.45 for AC Oulu, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–09.0%
Recent form
Mariehamn
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lahti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FF Jaro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
AC Oulu
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gnistan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FF Jaro · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2026-06-18T09:59:00.000Z · Mariehamn 1-2 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 2-0 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2025-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 0-1 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 1-0 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2024-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 2-1 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2024-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 2-1 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2024-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2023-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Mariehamn 2-3 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
- 2023-07-09T15:30:00.000Z · Mariehamn 1-2 AC Oulu (Veikkausliiga)
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -26 | 14 |
| 1 | Inter Turku | 27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 52 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 48 |
| 3 | KuPS | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| 5 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 37 |
| 1 | Lahti | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 2 | Ilves | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 32 |
| 4 | SJK | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -27 | 20 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -27 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AC Oulu win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.