Wiklof Holding Arena · Referee Dennis Antamo, Finland · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Mariehamn vs SJK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.38 for SJK, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives SJK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mariehamn home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SJK away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SJK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Mariehamn and 1.38 for SJK, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
Mariehamn
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lahti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FF Jaro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
SJK
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariehamn · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FF Jaro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Turku PS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -26 | 14 |
| 1 | Inter Turku | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 52 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | KuPS | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 42 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | -2 | 40 |
| 6 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 1 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 39 |
| 2 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 38 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 32 |
| 4 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -8 | 27 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -27 | 21 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -27 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.