Marília vs Portuguesa Santista Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Marília and 0.75 for Portuguesa Santista, a combined total of 1.79. That distribution gives Marília the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marília home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portuguesa Santista away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marília to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 33% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Marília and 0.75 for Portuguesa Santista, a combined 1.79 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Marília win42%

Draw33%

Portuguesa Santista win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–017.4%
0–016.7%
1–113.0%
0–112.5%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Marília

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandeirante SP · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)

Portuguesa Santista

2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marília · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-22T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Marília · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Preto · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Preto · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paulista · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Paulista - A3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa Santista	15	12	0	3	17	36
2	Marília	15	9	5	1	17	32
3	Rio Preto	15	8	5	2	11	29
4	XV de Jau	15	8	3	4	5	27
5	Rio Claro	15	7	4	4	3	25
6	Uniao Barbarense	15	6	6	3	2	24
7	EC São Bernardo	15	6	5	4	7	23
8	Paulista	15	6	5	4	7	23
9	União São João	15	6	4	5	1	22
10	Catanduva	15	5	6	4	1	21
11	Bandeirante SP	15	4	6	5	-4	18
12	Rio Branco SP	15	4	4	7	-11	16
13	Francana	15	3	1	11	-9	10
14	Itapirense	15	2	3	10	-12	9
15	Desportivo Brasil	15	1	5	9	-17	8
16	USAC	15	1	2	12	-18	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.