Estadio Bento de Abreu · Analysis updated 20:22 UTC
Marília vs XV de Jau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Marília and 0.80 for XV de Jau, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Marília the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marília home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
XV de Jau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marília to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 33% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Marília and 0.80 for XV de Jau, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–016.5%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Marília
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandeirante SP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
XV de Jau
- 2026-04-18T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Marília · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marília · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Claro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Claro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Brasil · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Marília | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 7 | EC São Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 9 | União São João | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante SP | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo Brasil | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | USAC | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.