· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Marine vs Radcliffe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Marine and 1.14 for Radcliffe, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Marine the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marine win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marine home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radcliffe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marine to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Marine and 1.14 for Radcliffe, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Marine
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Warrington Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radcliffe · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs South Shields · 1-2 (L)
Radcliffe
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hebburn Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marine win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.