Marine vs Warrington Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Marine and 2.25 for Warrington Town, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Warrington Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marine home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Warrington Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Marine win39%

Draw20%

Warrington Town win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–27.2%
1–26.6%
2–16.4%
1–15.9%
2–35.4%

Recent form

Marine

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartlepool · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Warrington Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radcliffe · 3-2 (W)

Warrington Town

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Liverpool · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs United of Manchester · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shildon AFC · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · Marine 2-1 Warrington Town (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Marine 1-0 Warrington Town (National League - North)
2025-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Marine 2-0 Warrington Town (National League - North)
2023-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Marine 1-2 Warrington Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
2022-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Marine 0-0 Warrington Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
2021-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · Marine 3-0 Warrington Town (FA Cup)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.