Umuganda Stadium · Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Marines vs Kiyovu Sports Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Marines and 0.58 for Kiyovu Sports, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Marines the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marines win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marines home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kiyovu Sports away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marines to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Marines and 0.58 for Kiyovu Sports, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.1%
- 0–016.2%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Marines
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs APR · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muhanga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musanze · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 2-3 (L)
Kiyovu Sports
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Gorilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gasogi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marines win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.