Maringá vs Amazonas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Maringá and 1.00 for Amazonas, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Maringá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Maringá win

56.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maringá home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amazonas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maringá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Maringá and 1.00 for Amazonas, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maringá win57%

Draw23%

Amazonas win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.8%
1–110.8%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.0%

Recent form

Maringá

2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Floresta · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo PB · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 2-0 (W)

Amazonas

2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ypiranga-RS · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusque · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Maringá · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	9	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	6	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	7	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	2	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	2	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	2	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	-1	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	5	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	10	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	-3	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	1	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	-2	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	1	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	-3	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	-12	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	0	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	-5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	-13	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	-9	13
1	Ferroviária	6	3	2	1	3	11
2	Inter De Limeira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Brusque	6	1	4	1	0	7
4	Paysandu	6	1	2	3	-3	5
1	Maringá	6	3	2	1	4	11
2	Santa Cruz	6	3	2	1	2	11
3	Floresta	6	1	2	3	-3	5
4	Botafogo PB	6	1	2	3	-3	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Maringá win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.