· Referee A. Goncalves · Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Maringá vs Santa Cruz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Maringá and 0.55 for Santa Cruz, a combined total of 1.37. That distribution gives Maringá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.4% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maringá home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Cruz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maringá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 38% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Maringá and 0.55 for Santa Cruz, a combined 1.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 1–020.9%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Maringá
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Floresta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo PB · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 2-0 (W)
Santa Cruz
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Floresta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Maringá · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anápolis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 6 | Inter De Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani Campinas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 19 |
| 19 | AO Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 17 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 1 | Ferroviária | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Inter De Limeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Brusque | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 1 | Maringá | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Floresta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Botafogo PB | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.