· Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Marino de Luanco vs Langreo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Marino de Luanco and 2.30 for Langreo, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Langreo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Langreo win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marino de Luanco home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Langreo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Marino de Luanco
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanera · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basconia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Astorga · 0-3 (L)
Langreo
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marino de Luanco · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 6-1 Langreo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 3-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 2-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-03-02T16:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 0-1 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 1-2 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-02-24T17:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 0-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 1-1 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-02-05T16:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 2-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 3-1 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-02-06T16:00:00.000Z · Marino de Luanco 2-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Langreo win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.