Marino de Luanco vs Sestao River Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Marino de Luanco and 1.40 for Sestao River, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Sestao River the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sestao River win

52.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marino de Luanco home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sestao River away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sestao River to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 20% / 28% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Marino de Luanco and 1.40 for Sestao River, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Marino de Luanco win20%

Draw28%

Sestao River win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–116.3%
1–112.2%
0–011.6%
0–211.4%
1–08.7%

Recent form

Marino de Luanco

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basconia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Astorga · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ourense CF · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 3-0 (W)

Sestao River

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sestao River win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.