Marino vs Real Unión de Tenerife Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Marino and 1.30 for Real Unión de Tenerife, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Marino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Unión de Tenerife away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Marino and 1.30 for Real Unión de Tenerife, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Marino win43%

Draw25%

Real Unión de Tenerife win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–09.1%
2–19.0%
0–17.7%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Marino

Real Unión de Tenerife

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Playas Sotavento · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Laguna de Duero · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Panadería Pulido · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Marino · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Llanos · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	6	5	0	1	14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Mensajero	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Marino	6	3	1	2	6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	3	1	2	3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	San Miguel	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	2	3	1	3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Estrella	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Anaza	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	0	2	4	-6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	0	2	4	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.