· Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Marisca Mersch vs Etzella Ettelbruck Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Marisca Mersch and 1.41 for Etzella Ettelbruck, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Marisca Mersch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marisca Mersch win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marisca Mersch home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Etzella Ettelbruck away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marisca Mersch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Marisca Mersch and 1.41 for Etzella Ettelbruck, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Marisca Mersch
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ALSS Luxembourg · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 1-1 (D)
Etzella Ettelbruck
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schengen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · Marisca Mersch 2-2 Etzella Ettelbruck (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marisca Mersch win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.