Stade Schintgespesch · Referee Laurent Wilmes · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Marisca Mersch vs Schifflange Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Marisca Mersch and 1.73 for Schifflange, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Marisca Mersch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marisca Mersch home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Schifflange away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marisca Mersch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Marisca Mersch and 1.73 for Schifflange, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Marisca Mersch
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ALSS Luxembourg · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 1-1 (D)
Schifflange
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yellow Boys Weiler · 2-3 (L)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Yellow Boys Weiler · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Mertert · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-05-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Titus Petange · 3-1 (W)
- 2024-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-05-05T14:00:00.000Z · Marisca Mersch 2-0 Schifflange (National Division)
- 2023-11-26T13:30:00.000Z · Marisca Mersch 1-2 Schifflange (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.