· Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Marítimo vs Petare FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Marítimo and 0.78 for Petare FC, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Marítimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marítimo home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Petare FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Marítimo
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-3 (L)
Petare FC
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · Marítimo 0-3 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-10T20:00:00.000Z · Marítimo 0-1 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-03-14T21:00:00.000Z · Marítimo 1-1 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-09-07T21:00:00.000Z · Marítimo 0-0 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-07-24T19:30:00.000Z · Marítimo 0-0 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-05-31T21:00:00.000Z · Marítimo 3-0 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-04-13T19:30:00.000Z · Marítimo 0-1 Petare FC (Segunda División)
- 2024-09-15T21:00:00.000Z · Marítimo 1-2 Petare FC (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.