· Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
Marítimo W vs Sporting Braga W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Marítimo W and 2.13 for Sporting Braga W, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Sporting Braga W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Braga W win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marítimo W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Braga W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Marítimo W
- 2026-05-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Albergaria/Durit W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albergaria/Durit W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Valadares Gaia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Damaiense W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 0-1 (L)
Sporting Braga W
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Power W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SL Benfica W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 0-2 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2025-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 2-1 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2025-04-13T10:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 0-0 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2024-11-17T11:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 0-1 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2024-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 0-3 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 4-1 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2023-05-14T12:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 1-2 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
- 2023-01-07T15:00:00.000Z · Marítimo W 1-5 Sporting Braga W (1a Divisão - Women)
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Porto W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Racing Power W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Valadares Gaia W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Rio Ave W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Braga W win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.