· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Marítimo W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Marítimo W and 2.05 for Vitoria Guimaraes W, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Vitoria Guimaraes W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vitoria Guimaraes W win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marítimo W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitoria Guimaraes W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitoria Guimaraes W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 21% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Marítimo W and 2.05 for Vitoria Guimaraes W, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Marítimo W
- 2026-05-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Albergaria/Durit W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albergaria/Durit W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Valadares Gaia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Damaiense W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 0-1 (L)
Vitoria Guimaraes W
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Marítimo W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valadares Gaia W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-28T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Damaiense W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisão - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Torreense W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Porto W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Racing Power W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Valadares Gaia W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Rio Ave W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Marítimo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vitoria Guimaraes W win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.