Maritsa Milevo vs Asenovets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 0.55 for Asenovets, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Maritsa Milevo win

81.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maritsa Milevo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Asenovets away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Milevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Maritsa Milevo and 0.55 for Asenovets, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Milevo win81%

Draw13%

Asenovets win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

2–014.5%
3–012.6%
1–011.1%
4–08.2%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Maritsa Milevo

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 0-4 (L)

Asenovets

2026-05-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-8 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletik Kuklen · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Milevo · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 4-0 Asenovets (Third League - Southeast)
2025-11-01T12:30:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 2-2 Asenovets (Third League - Southeast)
2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 0-3 Asenovets (Third League - Southeast)
2024-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 2-2 Asenovets (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Maritsa Milevo win, at 81.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.