· Analysis updated 17:45 UTC
Maritsa Milevo vs Atletik Kuklen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 0.85 for Atletik Kuklen, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maritsa Milevo win
83.0% probability
Expected goals
3.25 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maritsa Milevo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletik Kuklen away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.4%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 4–07.7%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Maritsa Milevo
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gigant Saedinenie · 2-1 (W)
Atletik Kuklen
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 1-0 Atletik Kuklen (Third League - Southeast)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 4-1 Atletik Kuklen (Third League - Southeast)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 5-0 Atletik Kuklen (Third League - Southeast)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 2-1 Atletik Kuklen (Third League - Southeast)
- 2024-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 3-3 Atletik Kuklen (Third League - Southeast)
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 33 |
| 2 | Maritsa Milevo | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Sayana Haskovo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Yambol 1915 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 20 |
| 6 | Neftochimic Burgas | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Rodopa Smolyan | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Gigant Saedinenie | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Rozova dolina | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Zagorets | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Dimitrovgrad | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Botev Plovdiv II | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Atletik Kuklen | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -21 | 7 |
| 16 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Levski Karlovo | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maritsa Milevo win, at 83.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.