Maritsa Milevo vs Botev Plovdiv II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.35 for Botev Plovdiv II, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Maritsa Milevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maritsa Milevo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Botev Plovdiv II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Milevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.35 for Botev Plovdiv II, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Milevo win44%

Draw24%

Botev Plovdiv II win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.1%
1–08.3%
1–27.6%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Maritsa Milevo

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gigant Saedinenie · 2-1 (W)

Botev Plovdiv II

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · Maritsa Milevo 4-2 Botev Plovdiv II (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	11	0	0	27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	9	0	1	14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	6	2	3	16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	6	1	3	7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	5	1	5	2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Zagorets	11	4	1	6	-9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	2	1	8	-21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	2	0	9	-16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.