Maritsa Milevo vs Sozopol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.95 for Sozopol, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Sozopol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sozopol win

47.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maritsa Milevo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sozopol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sozopol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Maritsa Milevo and 1.95 for Sozopol, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Milevo win31%

Draw22%

Sozopol win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–28.9%
2–17.1%
2–26.9%
0–15.9%

Recent form

Maritsa Milevo

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 0-4 (L)

Sozopol

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Krumovgrad · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Milevo · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sozopol win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.