Maritsa Plovdiv vs Levski Karlovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Maritsa Plovdiv and 1.18 for Levski Karlovo, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Maritsa Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Maritsa Plovdiv win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maritsa Plovdiv home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levski Karlovo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Maritsa Plovdiv and 1.18 for Levski Karlovo, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Plovdiv win45%

Draw25%

Levski Karlovo win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–010.2%
2–19.2%
0–17.9%
2–07.8%

Recent form

Maritsa Plovdiv

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Karlovo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)

Levski Karlovo

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	11	0	0	27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	9	0	1	14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	6	2	3	16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	6	1	3	7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	5	1	5	2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Zagorets	11	4	1	6	-9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	2	1	8	-21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	2	0	9	-16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Maritsa Plovdiv win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.