Maritsa stadium · Analysis updated 17:09 UTC
Maritsa Plovdiv vs Zagorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Maritsa Plovdiv and 1.19 for Zagorets, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Maritsa Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maritsa Plovdiv home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zagorets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Maritsa Plovdiv and 1.19 for Zagorets, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Maritsa Plovdiv
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Karlovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)
Zagorets
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 30 |
| 2 | Maritsa Milevo | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Sayana Haskovo | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Yambol 1915 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| 6 | Neftochimic Burgas | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Gigant Saedinenie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Rodopa Smolyan | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Rozova dolina | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Dimitrovgrad | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Plovdiv II | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Zagorets | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletik Kuklen | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 17 | Levski Karlovo | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.