Maritsa Plovdiv vs Zagorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Maritsa Plovdiv and 1.18 for Zagorets, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Maritsa Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maritsa Plovdiv home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zagorets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maritsa Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Maritsa Plovdiv and 1.18 for Zagorets, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maritsa Plovdiv win42%

Draw26%

Zagorets win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.5%
0–18.8%
2–18.8%
0–07.5%

Recent form

Maritsa Plovdiv

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Karlovo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)

Zagorets

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.