Marlow vs AFC Dunstable Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for Marlow and 1.45 for AFC Dunstable, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Marlow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Marlow win

70.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.13 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marlow home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Dunstable away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marlow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.13 goals for Marlow and 1.45 for AFC Dunstable, a combined 4.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Marlow win71%

Draw15%

AFC Dunstable win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

3–17.6%
2–17.3%
4–15.9%
3–25.5%
2–25.3%

Recent form

Marlow

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hayes & Yeading United · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:33.000Z · H vs Enfield 1893 · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:33.000Z · H vs Hertford Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-06T14:00:52.000Z · A vs Flackwell Heath · 3-2 (W)

AFC Dunstable

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woodford Town · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:10.000Z · A vs Barton Rovers · 0-8 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:52.000Z · A vs Ware · 0-8 (L)
2026-04-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs London Lions · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:25.000Z · H vs Leverstock Green · 0-9 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-03T14:00:52.000Z · Marlow 4-0 AFC Dunstable (Non League Div One - Southern Central)
2025-12-06T15:00:31.000Z · Marlow 3-1 AFC Dunstable (Non League Div One - Southern Central)

Non League Div One - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leighton Town	42	31	7	4	70	100
2	Hitchin Town	42	28	8	6	64	92
3	Biggleswade	42	27	8	7	53	89
4	Biggleswade Town	42	24	9	9	46	81
5	Thame United	42	25	5	12	40	80
6	Hertford Town	42	24	5	13	50	77
7	Ware	42	21	6	15	24	69
8	Barton Rovers	42	20	9	13	13	69
9	Welwyn Garden City	42	18	15	9	18	69
10	Hadley	42	18	9	15	10	63
11	Beaconsfield Town	42	17	10	15	1	61
12	Leverstock Green	42	15	13	14	8	58
13	Milton Keynes Irish	42	18	4	20	-14	58
14	Marlow	42	17	2	23	-18	53
15	Flackwell Heath	42	14	8	20	3	50
16	Aylesbury United	42	14	6	22	-5	48
17	Stotfold	42	15	3	24	-11	48
18	London Lions	42	13	5	24	-36	44
19	Enfield 1893	42	10	5	27	-52	35
20	Northwood	42	5	13	24	-51	28
21	Rayners Lane	42	5	5	32	-82	20
22	AFC Dunstable	42	3	5	34	-131	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Marlow win, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.