· Analysis updated 09:59 UTC
Marlow vs Hayes & Yeading United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Marlow and 1.64 for Hayes & Yeading United, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Marlow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marlow home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hayes & Yeading United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marlow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Marlow and 1.64 for Hayes & Yeading United, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
Marlow
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hayes & Yeading United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:33.000Z · H vs Enfield 1893 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:33.000Z · H vs Hertford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:52.000Z · A vs Flackwell Heath · 3-2 (W)
Hayes & Yeading United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peacehaven & Telscombe · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camberley Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marlow · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartley Wintney · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Littlehampton Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Marlow 0-4 Hayes & Yeading United (FA Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.