· Analysis updated 10:01 UTC
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Maroons and 0.70 for Kigezi HomeBoyz, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Maroons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Maroons win
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maroons home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maroons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Maroons and 0.70 for Kigezi HomeBoyz, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
Maroons
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataka · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vipers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugazi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UPDF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blacks Power · 1-2 (L)
Kigezi HomeBoyz
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCCA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lugazi · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Express | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maroons win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.