Victor Tedesco Stadium · Analysis updated 08:43 UTC
Marsa vs Mtarfa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.98 expected goals for Marsa and 1.22 for Mtarfa, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Marsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marsa win
72.7% probability
Expected goals
2.98 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marsa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mtarfa away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.98 goals for Marsa and 1.22 for Mtarfa, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–06.6%
- 3–06.6%
- 4–16.0%
Recent form
Marsa
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zebbug Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mtarfa · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zurrieq · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Lucía · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gudja United · 3-3 (D)
Mtarfa
- 2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Lucía · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsa · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-01T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gudja United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zurrieq · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Zurrieq | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marsa win, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.