· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Marsaxlokk and 1.26 for Gzira United, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Marsaxlokk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marsaxlokk win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marsaxlokk home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gzira United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Marsaxlokk
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-4 (L)
Gzira United
- 2026-10-25T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Birzebbuga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamrun Spartans · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:15:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 0-1 Gzira United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 2-1 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2026-01-18T10:00:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 0-3 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2025-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 2-0 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2025-02-21T19:30:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 1-0 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-08T12:30:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 0-0 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2024-08-18T18:15:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 0-1 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2024-04-06T14:15:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 1-1 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2023-12-03T13:00:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 4-2 Gzira United (Premier League)
- 2023-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · Marsaxlokk 1-1 Gzira United (FA Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marsaxlokk win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.