· Analysis updated 22:43 UTC
Marseille vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Marseille and 3.15 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club win
85.1% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 3.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marseille home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–311.4%
- 0–210.8%
- 0–49.0%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Marseille
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · Marseille 3-1 Athletic Club (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · Marseille 2-1 Athletic Club (UEFA Europa League)
- 2018-03-08T20:05:00.000Z · Marseille 3-1 Athletic Club (UEFA Europa League)
- 2016-02-25T18:00:00.000Z · Marseille 1-1 Athletic Club (UEFA Europa League)
- 2016-02-18T20:05:00.000Z · Marseille 0-1 Athletic Club (UEFA Europa League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 85.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.