Orange Velodrome · Referee A. Petit · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Marseille vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Marseille and 1.60 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marseille win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marseille home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Marseille and 1.60 for Atletico Madrid, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Marseille
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marseille win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.