Marseille vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Marseille and 1.56 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Estac Troyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Estac Troyes or Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Marseille win32%

Draw25%

Estac Troyes win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–29.1%
0–18.9%
2–17.5%
1–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Marseille home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estac Troyes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estac Troyes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Marseille and 1.56 for Estac Troyes, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Estac Troyes

2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.