Marseille vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Marseille and 1.06 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marseille home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorient away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Marseille win44%

Draw27%

Lorient win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–012.1%
0–19.3%
2–18.8%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Marseille

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)

Lorient

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Marseille 0-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2025-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Marseille 4-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2024-05-12T19:00:00.000Z · Marseille 3-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-12-10T19:45:00.000Z · Marseille 4-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-04-09T18:45:00.000Z · Marseille 0-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2023-01-14T18:00:00.000Z · Marseille 3-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2022-05-08T15:05:00.000Z · Marseille 3-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2021-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · Marseille 4-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2021-04-17T15:00:00.000Z · Marseille 3-2 Lorient (Ligue 1)
2020-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · Marseille 1-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.