Orange Vélodrome · Referee Clement Turpin, France · Analysis updated 09:43 UTC
Marseille vs Paris FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Marseille and 0.96 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marseille win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marseille home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paris FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Marseille and 0.96 for Paris FC, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 52.2% vs market 41.3%, edge +10.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 41.3% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +10.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 49.4% | 50.5% | 1.98 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.2% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 24.2% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.6% | 49.5% | 2.02 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.4% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.7% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -10.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Marseille
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
Paris FC
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T16:00:00.000Z · Marseille 2-2 Paris FC (Ligue 1)
- 2025-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Marseille 5-2 Paris FC (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marseille win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.