Orange Vélodrome · Referee François Letexier, France · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Marseille and 2.01 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marseille home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Marseille and 2.01 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 45.6% vs market 35.5%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 38.0% | 39.0% | 2.56 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.8% | 21.1% | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.50 | 60.9% | 61.0% | 1.64 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 18.3% | 17.9% | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.3% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.15 | 82.7% | 82.1% | 1.22 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Marseille
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.