Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Marseille and 1.78 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Marseille home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Marseille and 1.78 for Toulouse, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Marseille win39%

Draw22%

Toulouse win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–28.0%
2–18.0%
2–27.1%
0–15.1%

Recent form

Marseille

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)

Toulouse

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.