Stade Roger Lebert · Referee E. Daupeux · Analysis updated 18:10 UTC
Marseille W vs Montpellier W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Marseille W and 1.98 for Montpellier W, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Montpellier W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marseille W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montpellier W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montpellier W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 22% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Marseille W and 1.98 for Montpellier W, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Marseille W
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Montpellier W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon W · 0-1 (L)
Montpellier W
- 2026-10-23T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nantes W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Malo W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 18 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | Nantes W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Le Havre W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Montpellier W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Fleury 91 W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint-Malo W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.