Martinenc vs Europa II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Martinenc and 1.79 for Europa II, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Martinenc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Europa II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Martinenc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Martinenc and 1.79 for Europa II, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Martinenc win41%

Draw22%

Europa II win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.6%
2–18.1%
1–27.7%
2–27.2%
3–15.0%

Recent form

Martinenc

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 2-1 (W)

Europa II

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montañesa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinenc · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Martinenc 3-3 Europa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.