Martinenc vs Montañesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Martinenc and 1.68 for Montañesa, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Montañesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Montañesa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montañesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Martinenc and 1.68 for Montañesa, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Martinenc win34%

Draw24%

Montañesa win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–28.9%
2–17.7%
0–17.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Martinenc

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 2-1 (W)

Montañesa

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Grama · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Badalona · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 0-5 (L)
2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Vic · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.