Stade Pierre-Aliker · Referee K. Williams · Analysis updated 10:36 UTC
Martinique vs Honduras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Martinique and 1.43 for Honduras, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Honduras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Honduras win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Martinique home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Honduras away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Honduras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Martinique and 1.43 for Honduras, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–28.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 59.2% vs market 50.0%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 59.2% | 1.69 | +9.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 52.5% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.00 | 47.1% | 47.3% | 2.11 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.0% | 27.1% | 3.69 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 79.8% | 79.8% | 1.25 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.0% | 72.9% | 1.37 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.50 | 20.4% | 20.2% | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 40.8% | 2.45 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Martinique
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Suriname · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs El Salvador · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs El Salvador · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-02-21T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-2 (L)
Honduras
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamaica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Suriname · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peru · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2019-11-15T01:30:00.000Z · Martinique 1-1 Honduras (CONCACAF Nations League)
- 2019-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · Martinique 0-1 Honduras (CONCACAF Nations League)
CONCACAF Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Barbados | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 |
| 7 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | St. Lucia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Aruba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | French Guyana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | US Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Guatemala | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Jamaica | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 19 | Suriname | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Honduras | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Martinique | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | Guadeloupe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | El Salvador | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 26 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Belize | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Grenada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 31 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 33 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 37 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Honduras win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.