Thohoyandou Stadium · Analysis updated 15:17 UTC
Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Marumo Gallants and 1.53 for Richards Bay, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Marumo Gallants the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marumo Gallants home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Richards Bay away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Marumo Gallants
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekhukhune United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pirates · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazulu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Polokwane City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TS Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
Richards Bay
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekhukhune United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milford FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Amazulu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kaizer Chiefs · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 1-1 Richards Bay (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 2-1 Richards Bay (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-02-04T17:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 1-2 Richards Bay (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-01-04T18:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-0 Richards Bay (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-01-14T13:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-2 Richards Bay (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-0 Richards Bay (Premier Soccer League)
- 2020-01-26T13:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-1 Richards Bay (1st Division)
- 2019-10-06T13:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-0 Richards Bay (1st Division)
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.