Thohoyandou Stadium · Referee Eugene Mdluli, South Africa · Analysis updated 16:42 UTC
Marumo Gallants vs TS Galaxy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Marumo Gallants and 1.67 for TS Galaxy, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives TS Galaxy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TS Galaxy win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marumo Gallants home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TS Galaxy away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Marumo Gallants
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekhukhune United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pirates · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amazulu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Polokwane City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TS Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
TS Galaxy
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Chippa United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kruger United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sekhukhune United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marumo Gallants · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Golden Arrows · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 2-3 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2026-05-06T17:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 1-1 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2026-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-1 TS Galaxy (Cup)
- 2026-01-21T17:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-2 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2025-03-30T15:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 2-1 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 1-1 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2023-03-05T13:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-0 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 1-0 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2022-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 0-0 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
- 2021-12-01T15:15:00.000Z · Marumo Gallants 3-1 TS Galaxy (Premier Soccer League)
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Milford FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kruger United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | TS Galaxy | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Richards Bay | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TS Galaxy win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.