· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Mārupe vs Riga Mariners Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Mārupe and 1.73 for Riga Mariners, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Riga Mariners the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Riga Mariners win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mārupe home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riga Mariners away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga Mariners to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Mārupe and 1.73 for Riga Mariners, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
Mārupe
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga FC II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tukums II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JDFS Alberts · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 2-1 (W)
Riga Mariners
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smiltene · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rēzekne FA · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 78 | 60 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 53 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 53 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 50 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 41 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 33 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Skanste | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | -2 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -6 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -27 | 20 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -34 | 19 |
| 12 | Rīgas FS II | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -24 | 16 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 23 | 1 | 3 | 19 | -53 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Riga Mariners win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.