· Analysis updated 02:38 UTC
MAS Ardas Kastanion vs Kavala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for MAS Ardas Kastanion and 1.48 for Kavala, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives MAS Ardas Kastanion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kavala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MAS Ardas Kastanion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for MAS Ardas Kastanion and 1.48 for Kavala, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
MAS Ardas Kastanion
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Xanthi FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontion Nea Amisos · 3-2 (W)
Kavala
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eleftheroupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Paralimniou · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thrakis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.