Stadion Guzor · Referee R. Abduvohidov · Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Mash'al vs Nasaf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.52 expected goals for Mash'al and 1.90 for Nasaf, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Nasaf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nasaf win
70.7% probability
Expected goals
0.52 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mash'al home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nasaf away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nasaf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 9% / 20% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.52 goals for Mash'al and 1.90 for Nasaf, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.0%
- 0–216.1%
- 0–310.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–18.8%
Recent form
Mash'al
- 2026-10-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-3 (L)
Nasaf
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogdiana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Samarqand · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 42 |
| 5 | Nasaf | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 41 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 | Andijan | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 31 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | -38 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nasaf win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.